A Natural History of the Future

September 15, 2021
A stimulating exploration into how the laws of biology can help us "understand the future into which we are--arms flailing, coal burning, and full speed ahead--hurling ourselves." Describing the havoc humans are wreaking on the planet is a fertile subject, but this challenging book focuses on what we think we know about nature but don't. Dunn, a professor of applied ecology, notes that life is far vaster and unexplored than we imagine and that our default approach to nature seems to be an attempt to hold it back. He adds that those who study nature learn by studying isolated systems such as islands, where ecologists learn how species arrive, evolve, prosper, and go extinct. Recently, they have turned their attention to human-made habitats. The largest are farms and cities. Just as new species appear on islands, the same is true in human ecosystems. Rats, mice, pigeons, and weeds are evolving, and eventually each city will have its own species adapted to the local surroundings. Mostly, they eat, uninvited, from our plates, but humans still prefer these habitats. Today, the entire world is becoming a human ecosystem: Wild animals make up just 3% of the vertebrate biomass; domestic animals make up 65%, and the rest are humans. While cutting down forests and paving swamps, humans also began warming the world, which is good for diseases and parasites. In the near future, thanks to our profligate ways, Earth will be more pleasant for insects and microorganisms and less so for humans. "We can find ways to survive...just not forever," Dunn warns. "Eventually we will go extinct. All species do." Dealing reasonably with the circumstances requires knowledge and imagination. The author avoids the usual implausible how-to-fix-it conclusion: worldwide cooperation, self-denial, scientific breakthroughs, unpopular (and therefore unlikely) government actions. Instead, he offers a book that is less doomsday prophecy and more excellent primer on ecology and evolution. An imaginative, sensible education for those concerned with the fate of the Earth.

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October 11, 2021
People must have biological laws “in the front of our mind if we are to make any sense of the years ahead,” warns biologist Dunn in this effective exploration of nature in the future (after Never Home Alone). To explain the probable impacts that a warming planet will have on life, Dunn focuses on such laws of nature as natural selection, the species-area law (which “allows us to predict where and when species will go extinct”), and the law of the niche, which governs where species can successfully live. He also explains “law-like biases” that people have about the natural world, such as anthropocentrism, which gives people a “false impression of the world.” Life, Dunn argues, will continue, though it will likely be dramatically different from its current form, and humanity’s future is far from secure, as rising temperatures will lead to increases in violence, decreases in gross domestic product, and far fewer places suited to human survival. Additionally, he posits, unless significant changes are made, within six decades 3.5 billion people will be living in environments unable to support human life. Dunn’s pessimism is offset by his belief that people can help mitigate the effects of climate change by valuing “the rest of life” outside humanity, as well as heeding the lessons that other life has to teach. Thoughtful and accessible, this deserves a wide readership.

October 15, 2021
On average, animal species survive on earth for about two-million years. But a combination of climate change, environmental meddling, and human hubris will assuredly slash the longevity of many. Biologist Dunn declares, ""We are reshaping nature at unprecedented scales."" This involves the widespread use of pesticides, herbicides, and antibiotics and the destruction of some species, especially insects and birds. Expect nature to push back, perhaps in unimaginable ways. In forecasting future ecology, Dunn enlists biological laws to predict what likely lies ahead for life on our planet, including us. Among these principles are natural selection, ecological niche (every species has its place), and cognitive buffering (big-brained animals can locate food and moderate harsh climate effects). Dunn engagingly explains biogeography, inventive intelligence, and speedy evolutionary reaction to changing conditions. Many kinds of creatures are spotlighted in his discussion, including chemical-eating crust microbes, clever crows, and disease-carrying mosquitoes. One of two roads will lead to an increasingly warm and worrisome future. The better path requires conserving or at least mimicking natural ecosystems. The other will inevitably lead to mass extinction.

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